Chaoticity for multi-class systems and exchangeability within classes

Classical results for exchangeable systems of random variables are extended to multi-class systems satisfying a natural partial exchangeability assumption. It is proved that the conditional law of a finite multi-class system, given the value of the vector of the empirical measures of its classes, corresponds to independent uniform orderings of the samples within each class, and that a family of such systems converges in law if and only if the corresponding empirical measure vectors converge in law. As a corollary, convergence within each class to an infinite i.i.d. system implies asymptotic independence between different classes. A result implying the Hewitt-Savage 0-1 Law is also extended.Comment: Third revision, v4. The paper is similar to the second revision v3, with several improvement

Regenerative properties of the linear hawkes process with unbounded memory

We prove regenerative properties for the linear Hawkes process under minimal assumptions on the transfer function, which may have unbounded support. These results are applicable to sliding window statistical estimators. We exploit independence in the Poisson cluster point process decomposition, and the regeneration times are not stopping times for the Hawkes process. The regeneration time is interpreted as the renewal time at zero of a M/G/infinity queue, which yields a formula for its Laplace transform. When the transfer function admits some exponential moments, we stochastically dominate the cluster length by exponential random variables with parameters expressed in terms of these moments. This yields explicit bounds on the Laplace transform of the regeneration time in terms of simple integrals or special functions yielding an explicit negative upper-bound on its abscissa of convergence. These regenerative results allow, e.g., to systematically derive long-time asymptotic results in view of statistical applications. This is illustrated on a concentration inequality previously obtained with coauthors

Out of equilibrium functional central limit theorems for a large network where customers join the shortest of several queues

Customers arrive at rate N times alpha on a network of N single server infinite buffer queues, choose L queues uniformly, join the shortest one, and are served there in turn at rate beta. We let N go to infinity.We prove a functional central limit theorem (CLT) for the tails of the empirical measures of the queue occupations,in a Hilbert space with the weak topology, with limit given by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The a priori assumption is that the initial data converge.This completes a recent functional CLT in equilibrium result for which convergence for the initial data was not known in advance, but was deduced a posteriori from the functional CLT.Comment: A new preprint math.PR/0403538, has been written as a combined version of the present preprint and the preprint math.PR/0312334. It is recommended to read the new combined version instead of the two other

Interacting multi-class transmissions in large stochastic networks

The mean-field limit of a Markovian model describing the interaction of several classes of permanent connections in a network is analyzed. Each of the connections has a self-adaptive behavior in that its transmission rate along its route depends on the level of congestion of the nodes of the route. Since several classes of connections going through the nodes of the network are considered, an original mean-field result in a multi-class context is established. It is shown that, as the number of connections goes to infinity, the behavior of the different classes of connections can be represented by the solution of an unusual nonlinear stochastic differential equation depending not only on the sample paths of the process, but also on its distribution. Existence and uniqueness results for the solutions of these equations are derived. Properties of their invariant distributions are investigated and it is shown that, under some natural assumptions, they are determined by the solutions of a fixed-point equation in a finite-dimensional space.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AAP614 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Self-adaptive congestion control for multi-class intermittent connections in a communication network

A Markovian model of the evolution of intermittent connections of various classes in a communication network is established and investigated. Any connection evolves in a way which depends only on its class and the state of the network, in particular as to the route it uses among a subset of the network nodes. It can be either active (ON) when it is transmitting data along its route, or idle (OFF). The congestion of a given node is defined as a functional of the transmission rates of all ON connections going through it, and causes losses and delays to these connections. In order to control this, the ON connections self-adaptively vary their transmission rate in TCP-like fashion. The connections interact through this feedback loop. A Markovian model is provided by the states (OFF, or ON with some transmission rate) of the connections. The number of connections in each class being potentially huge, a mean-field limit result is proved with an appropriate scaling so as to reduce the dimensionality. In the limit, the evolution of the states of the connections can be represented by a non-linear system of stochastic differential equations, of dimension the number of classes. Additionally, it is shown that the corresponding stationary distribution can be expressed by the solution of a fixed-point equation of finite dimension

Cache Miss Estimation for Non-Stationary Request Processes

The aim of the paper is to evaluate the miss probability of a Least Recently Used (LRU) cache, when it is offered a non-stationary request process given by a Poisson cluster point process. First, we construct a probability space using Palm theory, describing how to consider a tagged document with respect to the rest of the request process. This framework allows us to derive a general integral formula for the expected number of misses of the tagged document. Then, we consider the limit when the cache size and the arrival rate go to infinity proportionally, and use the integral formula to derive an asymptotic expansion of the miss probability in powers of the inverse of the cache size. This enables us to quantify and improve the accuracy of the so-called Che approximation

The Bounded Confidence Model Of Opinion Dynamics

The bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics, introduced by Deffuant et al, is a stochastic model for the evolution of continuous-valued opinions within a finite group of peers. We prove that, as time goes to infinity, the opinions evolve globally into a random set of clusters too far apart to interact, and thereafter all opinions in every cluster converge to their barycenter. We then prove a mean-field limit result, propagation of chaos: as the number of peers goes to infinity in adequately started systems and time is rescaled accordingly, the opinion processes converge to i.i.d. nonlinear Markov (or McKean-Vlasov) processes; the limit opinion processes evolves as if under the influence of opinions drawn from its own instantaneous law, which are the unique solution of a nonlinear integro-differential equation of Kac type. This implies that the (random) empirical distribution processes converges to this (deterministic) solution. We then prove that, as time goes to infinity, this solution converges to a law concentrated on isolated opinions too far apart to interact, and identify sufficient conditions for the limit not to depend on the initial condition, and to be concentrated at a single opinion. Finally, we prove that if the equation has an initial condition with a density, then its solution has a density at all times, develop a numerical scheme for the corresponding functional equation, and show numerically that bifurcations may occur.Comment: 43 pages, 7 figure